By Ryan Porzel, REALTOR® | HomeSmart Advantage Group Covers closed sales from July 1 – September 30, 2026 · Data current as of October 15, 2026
Tucson-area home sales slowed through the summer of 2026, but prices didn't follow them down. In the Tucson Association of REALTORS® (TAR) area, closings ran 2% behind the previous year in July and nearly 10% behind in August. Over the same months, the median sale price was unchanged in July and up 2.9% in August.
Buyers had plenty to choose from. Across the Tucson metro, the number of homes for sale was more than double the 2023 level, though roughly even with last year. Mortgage rates climbed through the quarter, reaching 7.40% by mid-October.
The bigger story is how differently Tucson's surrounding communities behaved. Using closed-sale data I pulled from the MLS for Tucson, Vail, Sahuarita, Marana, Oro Valley and Green Valley, the gaps were wide:
- Average sold price: from $313,187 in Green Valley to $597,412 in Oro Valley
- Average price per square foot: from $185.55 in Sahuarita to $260.51 in Oro Valley
Here's what happened, what it means, and where the numbers have limits.
For first-half context, see my mid-year 2026 Tucson market recap.
Q3 2026 at a glance
| Measure | Q3 2026 figure | Area |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $364,900 in July (flat YoY); $360,000 in August (+2.9% YoY) | TAR area |
| Closed sales | 1,188 in July (−2.0% YoY); 1,048 in August (−9.9% YoY) | TAR area |
| New pending sales | 1,055 in August (−10.1% YoY) | TAR area |
| Median days on market, homes that sold | 35 in July; 34 in August (both slightly faster than 2025) | TAR area |
| Months of supply | 3.75 in July; 4.46 in August | TAR area |
| Active listings | 3,851 in September (+2.5% YoY) | Tucson metro |
| 30-year mortgage rate | 6.43% on July 2 → 7.40% on October 15 | National (Freddie Mac) |
Did Tucson home sales slow in Q3 2026?
Yes, and the slowdown grew as the summer went on.
July was close to last year's pace. In the TAR area, sales were down 2.0%. MLS-wide, which adds Green Valley, Sahuarita and smaller Southern Arizona markets, sales were down 3.5%.
August was weaker: TAR-area closings fell 9.9% year over year. New contracts fell by about the same amount, down 10.1%, and those contracts become the closings reported in September and October.
Sellers kept listing anyway. TAR-area new listings were up 2.7% in July and down only 1.4% in August. With supply steady and fewer buyers signing contracts, choices widened for anyone shopping.
MLSSAZ's preliminary September headline shows 1,129 closed sales and a $365,000 median. Full September detail hadn't been published as of this writing, so I'm not comparing September with last year yet.
Are Tucson home prices falling?
Not across the region. The TAR-area median was $364,900 in July, unchanged from a year earlier, and $360,000 in August, up 2.9%. Median price per square foot rose slightly in both months.
A steady median doesn't mean every home held its value, though. In August:
- Sales between $300,000 and $399,999 fell 21.5%.
- Sales between $400,000 and $499,999 rose 14.4%.
When fewer lower-priced homes close, the median can rise without any individual home gaining value.
Some areas show softer values. Zillow's home value index for Sahuarita was down 2.0% year over year through August.
A note on averages: the six-community numbers below are averages, which run higher than medians because higher-priced sales pull them up. Tucson's Q3 average sold price was $427,508, compared with a TAR-area median near $360,000. Neither number is wrong. They measure different things, so compare averages with averages and medians with medians.
Is Tucson a buyer's market?
It's a balanced market that leans toward buyers in some price ranges.
TAR-area months of supply rose from 3.75 in July to 4.46 in August. Most of that change came from slower sales, not a flood of new listings.
The total number of homes for sale is high compared with recent years but not climbing fast. Across the Tucson metro, Realtor.com counted 3,851 active listings in September, compared with:
- 3,758 a year earlier
- 1,757 in September 2023
Competition depended heavily on price. Here's the August TAR-area months of supply by price range:
| List price range | Months of supply |
|---|---|
| Under $200,000 | 6.3 |
| $200,000–$299,999 | 4.2 |
| $300,000–$399,999 | 4.0 |
| $400,000–$499,999 | 3.8 |
| $500,000–$599,999 | 4.3 |
| $600,000–$999,999 | 5.0–5.3 |
| $1.4 million and up | 9.7 |
The $400,000–$499,999 range was the most competitive band in the market. It had the lowest supply, sales rose year over year, and median days on market fell by 13 days. That's the price range for much of the newer resale housing in Vail, Rita Ranch and Marana.
Property type mattered just as much. In August, single-family homes had a median of 33 days on market. Condominiums had a median of 86 days, 36 days slower than a year earlier.
Six-community comparison: Tucson, Vail, Sahuarita, Marana, Oro Valley and Green Valley
This is the part of the report you won't find on a national real estate site. It covers all residential closed sales from July 1 to September 30, 2026, grouped by the city listed in the MLS.
Q3 2026 closed residential sales by community
| Community | Sales | Avg. sold price | Avg. $/sq ft | Avg. days on market | Sale-to-list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oro Valley | 207 | $597,412 | $260.51 | 59 | 97% |
| Marana | 345 | $482,990 | $228.48 | 60 | 98% |
| Vail | 239 | $449,947 | $210.23 | 58 | 99% |
| Tucson | 2,482 | $427,508 | $225.56 | 51 | 98% |
| Sahuarita | 165 | $348,752 | $185.55 | 60 | 99% |
| Green Valley | 268 | $313,187 | $200.89 | 68 | 98% |
Source: MLS of Southern Arizona (MLSSAZ), Flexmls Statistical Market Analysis, Q3 2026 residential closed sales, compiled by Ryan Porzel, October 15, 2026.
A few notes on reading the table:
- All figures are averages.
- Days on market counts only homes that sold.
- Sale-to-list ratios are rounded.
- Figures are as reported on October 15, 2026, and may be revised when the underlying searches are rerun.
A note on geography: MLS city names usually follow mailing addresses, not town limits. Many homes inside the Town of Marana have Tucson addresses, and "Tucson" includes unincorporated areas such as the Catalina Foothills. All six communities are in Pima County. Oro Valley, Marana and Sahuarita are incorporated towns; Vail and Green Valley are unincorporated.
These figures compare the communities during the same three months. They don't show whether any one of them is gaining or losing ground.
Which community had the highest home prices?
Oro Valley had the highest average sold price at $597,412. Green Valley had the lowest at $313,187. The average Oro Valley sale was about 1.9 times the average Green Valley sale.
Much of that gap reflects what each market sells. Oro Valley's market includes established communities such as Rancho Vistoso, golf-course neighborhoods and a meaningful luxury segment. Green Valley's resale market leans heavily toward patio homes, townhomes and homes in long-established age-restricted communities. The averages can't tell us how much of the difference comes from home size versus location, age or amenities.
What does price per square foot tell us?
Price per square foot is useful for broad comparisons, but it isn't a value verdict. Home size, age, condition, construction quality, lot, views and amenities all move it. Larger homes also tend to sell for less per square foot.
Here's how each community compared with Tucson:
| Community | Avg. price vs. Tucson | Avg. $/sq ft vs. Tucson |
|---|---|---|
| Oro Valley | +39.7% | +15.5% |
| Marana | +13.0% | +1.3% |
| Vail | +5.2% | −6.8% |
| Sahuarita | −18.4% | −17.7% |
| Green Valley | −26.7% | −10.9% |
Calculated from the Q3 2026 averages above.
Marana: The average sale cost 13% more than in Tucson, yet price per square foot was nearly identical. That pattern is consistent with buyers purchasing larger homes, which fits Marana's newer, larger floor plans in areas like Gladden Farms and Dove Mountain. Square-footage data would be needed to confirm it.
Vail: Average prices were above Tucson's while price per square foot was about 7% lower. Vail's housing is largely newer subdivisions, and the "Tucson" figure includes older central neighborhoods and Foothills properties that carry higher per-foot prices.
Green Valley: It had the lowest average price but not the lowest price per square foot. That's another sign that the size and type of home matter as much as location.
Sahuarita: It had the lowest price per square foot of the six, at $185.55.
As a purely hypothetical illustration, $400,000 divided by each area's average price per square foot works out to:
- About 1,540 square feet in Oro Valley
- About 1,770 square feet in Tucson
- About 2,160 square feet in Sahuarita
Real homes vary too much for that to predict what a buyer will find. For actual listings, see What Does $400,000 Buy in Tucson?
Where did homes sell fastest?
Homes listed in Tucson sold fastest, averaging 51 days on market. Green Valley was slowest at 68 days.
Vail (58), Oro Valley (59), Marana (60) and Sahuarita (60) were essentially tied.
Some plausible reasons:
- Tucson has the deepest pool of buyers at every price point.
- Builder homes listed before completion can lengthen averages in Vail, Marana and Sahuarita.
- Many Green Valley buyers are retirees and seasonal residents who shop in the cooler months, which makes July through September its quietest stretch.
These are explanations, not conclusions the data proves.
What do sale-to-list ratios show?
Homes in all six communities sold, on average, within about 1% to 3% of list price. Vail and Sahuarita averaged about 99%. Oro Valley was lowest at about 97%. Because these are rounded averages, a one-point difference is close to the limit of what the data can distinguish.
The ratio also misses a lot. It compares the sold price with the list price used in the MLS calculation, so it doesn't capture:
- Earlier price reductions
- Seller-paid closing costs
- Rate buydowns
- Repair credits
A home listed at $475,000, reduced to $449,000 and sold at $445,000 can still show about 99%. So a high ratio doesn't prove sellers got close to their original price, and a lower one doesn't prove sellers in that community negotiate more.
Community snapshots
Oro Valley housing market
Oro Valley led on every price measure:
- Average sold price: $597,412
- Average price per square foot: $260.51
- Sale-to-list: about 97%
Its housing ranges from established golf and master-planned neighborhoods to high-end custom homes. That's why sellers there should price from recent sales in their own subdivision rather than townwide averages. Explore Oro Valley →
Marana housing market
Marana recorded 345 closed sales, the most of the five suburbs. Its average sold price was $482,990, and its price per square foot was close to Tucson's.
New construction remains a major part of the Marana market. Resale sellers there often compete directly with builders offering incentives. Explore Marana →
Vail AZ housing market
Vail combined an above-Tucson average price ($449,947) with a below-Tucson price per square foot ($210.23).
At the MLS-region level, the Upper Southeast area, covering most of Vail plus Rita Ranch, swung within the quarter:
- July: sales up 12.5% year over year
- August: sales down 25.2% year over year
With totals near 100 sales a month, one month isn't a trend.
Explore Vail → · Living in Vail, AZ: Pros & Cons
Sahuarita housing market
Sahuarita had the lowest average price per square foot ($185.55) and the second-lowest average price ($348,752). Much of its resale inventory sits in master-planned communities such as Rancho Sahuarita, where newer homes and community amenities are a major draw.
The tradeoffs are the I-19 commute and fewer nearby dining options, which I cover in Living in Sahuarita, AZ: Pros & Cons. Explore Sahuarita →
Green Valley AZ housing market
Green Valley had the lowest average sold price ($313,187) and the longest average days on market (68).
In July, the wider Green Valley–Sahuarita REALTOR® area showed:
- 129 sales, down 15.7% year over year
- A $315,000 median, up 1.6%
- 4.11 months of supply
Activity there typically picks up when seasonal residents return. Explore Green Valley →
Tucson
Homes listed in Tucson sold fastest of the six, averaging 51 days across 2,482 closed sales. Tucson's averages span everything from midtown bungalows to Catalina Foothills estates. Neighborhood-level comparables matter more inside Tucson than anywhere else in the region. Explore Tucson →
What buyers should know heading into Q4 2026
You have choices and time to compare them. The best negotiating opportunities tend to be homes that have been on the market for a few weeks or have already reduced their price. Fresh, well-priced homes in the $400,000s are still drawing quick interest.
Mortgage rates are part of the math. Freddie Mac's 30-year average went from 6.43% in early July, below the year-earlier level, to 7.40% by mid-October, above it. On a $350,000 loan, that difference adds roughly $230 a month in principal and interest.
Higher payments shrink the pool of qualified buyers, and that is consistent with the slower August numbers. Summer seasonality and other factors play a role too, so rates alone don't explain the slowdown.
Ask sellers and builders about credits toward a rate buydown, not just price cuts. In Marana, Vail and Sahuarita, builder incentives can change the comparison between new and resale homes. My New Construction vs. Resale guide explains how to compare them, and my Vail vs. Sahuarita vs. Marana comparison covers commutes and lifestyle.
What sellers should know heading into Q4 2026
Buyers are still paying fair prices, but they aren't chasing optimistic ones. An analysis of MLSSAZ data for the city of Tucson by local agent Blaine Bond found that 48% of active listings had at least one price reduction in August. The first cut typically came about 17 days after listing.
The first few weeks usually decide how a listing goes, so condition and presentation matter from day one.
Your pricing should come from recent sales in your own neighborhood, not regional averages. A Rita Ranch home, a Rancho Sahuarita home and a Rancho Vistoso home each compete with very different nearby sales.
If buyers can choose new construction near you, be ready to discuss concessions as well as price. Condo sellers should expect longer timelines than single-family sellers.
Fall can bring fewer local buyers. In Green Valley and Oro Valley, it also brings seasonal and retiree buyers who often rely less on financing. Where rates go next is uncertain, so plan around today's conditions rather than a forecast.
Frequently asked questions
What happened in the Tucson housing market in Q3 2026?
Sales slowed while prices held. TAR-area closings fell 2.0% year over year in July and 9.9% in August. Median sale prices were flat in July ($364,900) and up 2.9% in August ($360,000).
Are Tucson home prices falling in 2026?
Not at the regional level. TAR-area medians in July and August 2026 were equal to or above the same months in 2025. Some individual areas and price ranges are softer, so values depend on the neighborhood and the home.
Is Tucson a buyer's market right now?
It's balanced, leaning toward buyers in some ranges. TAR-area supply reached 4.46 months in August 2026. Homes under $200,000 and above $1.4 million gave buyers the most leverage, while the $400,000–$499,999 range was the most competitive.
Which Tucson-area community had the highest home prices in Q3 2026?
Oro Valley had the highest average sold price ($597,412) and the highest price per square foot ($260.51) among Tucson, Vail, Sahuarita, Marana, Oro Valley and Green Valley.
Where were Tucson-area homes most affordable in Q3 2026?
Green Valley had the lowest average sold price ($313,187). Sahuarita had the lowest average price per square foot ($185.55). Lower averages reflect differences in home size and type, so they don't guarantee better value on a specific home.
How long does it take to sell a house in Tucson?
TAR-area homes that sold in July and August 2026 had a median of 34–35 days on market. Across the six communities in this report, Q3 averages ranged from 51 days in Tucson to 68 days in Green Valley. Averages run higher than medians because a few slow-selling homes pull them up.
Want numbers for your neighborhood?
Regional averages are a starting point, not a price for your home. If you're thinking about buying or selling, I'm happy to put together a market analysis based on recent sales in your specific neighborhood. You can request a home valuation or contact me directly.
About the data
Six-community figures:
- Source: MLS of Southern Arizona (MLSSAZ), Flexmls Statistical Market Analysis, compiled by Ryan Porzel on October 15, 2026.
- Coverage: residential closed sales from July 1 to September 30, 2026, filtered by the MLS City field.
- Figures are averages. Price per square foot is the average of each sale's MLS-reported value.
- Figures are as reported on that date and may be revised when the underlying searches are rerun.
- Comparisons between communities and the $400,000 illustration are my calculations.
Monthly trends:
- From MLSSAZ and Tucson Association of REALTORS® monthly reports for July 2026 (as of August 5) and August 2026 (as of September 7).
- September figures are MLSSAZ's preliminary headline numbers.
Other sources:
- Inventory and listing time: Realtor.com metro data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac's weekly national survey.
No figures in this report come from my own clients or transactions.
Sources
- MLSSAZ, Flexmls Statistical Market Analysis, Q3 2026 residential closed sales, compiled by Ryan Porzel, October 15, 2026.
- MLSSAZ, Monthly Market Report, July 2026 (all areas, including GVSAR).
- Tucson Association of REALTORS® / MLSSAZ, July 2026 and August 2026 statistics.
- MLSSAZ, September 2026 headline statistics, accessed October 15, 2026.
- Realtor.com via FRED: Active Listing Count, Tucson metro and Median Days on Market, Tucson metro.
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey and weekly archive.
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis: Tucson, Arizona.
- Zillow, Sahuarita, AZ Home Values, data through August 31, 2026.
About the author
Ryan Porzel is a REALTOR® with HomeSmart Advantage Group (Arizona license SA628779000). He helps buyers, sellers and relocating families across greater Tucson, including Vail, Rita Ranch, Oro Valley, Marana, Sahuarita and Green Valley. He publishes local market reports and community guides at TucsonWithRyan.com.
This report is for general information and reflects the author's professional interpretation of published data. It is not financial or legal advice.
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